Beating the Odds Analysis

On December 7, 2018, GOSA released the 2018 Beating the Odds analysis results.

Beating the Odds is a statistical analysis that compares a school’s actual performance on the College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI) with the performance of schools with similar characteristics across the state. Schools that perform higher than similar schools are considered “Beating the Odds.” It is important to note that schools that “Beat the Odds” may still have low CCRPI scores and/or gaps in performance.

Beginning with the release of the 2018 CCRPI, Beating the Odds will be calculated using a revised formula in order to improve the model based on feedback from school systems, the Georgia Department of Education, Georgia’s Educator Effectiveness and Accountability Technical Advisory Committee, and an external statistical expert. The former "Did Not Beat the Odds" category will be separated into two tiers in order to provide additional context: "Within Expected Range" and "Below Expected Range." For a list of detailed changes, click on the Beating the Odds Revised Model document.

The following school characteristics are included in the calculation:

  • Percentage of economically disadvantaged students,
  • Percentage of English language learners,
  • Percentage of students with disabilities,
  • Percentage of students in each race/ethnicity,
  • Percentage of female students,
  • Student mobility,
  • School size,
  • Whether a school is defined as non-traditional (according to GOSA), and
  • School type (Elementary, Middle, High, and schools that span grade clusters).

With the 2018 revision to the Beating the Odds model, students are now counted in the demographics portion if they were enrolled as “Full-Time Equivalent (FTE)." This is different from previous iterations of the Beating the Odds model, where students were counted in the demographics portion if they were enrolled as "Full Academic Year (FAY)."

The results of Beating the Odds are used for accountability in charter school, charter system, and Strategic Waivers School System (SWSS) contracts. For more information on how it is used in charter school and charter system accountability, click here. For more information on how it is used in SWSS accountability, click here.

For more detail on the calculation, click on the technical overview below.

*On May 5, 2017, GOSA released a recalculated BTO for 2012-2016 to correct a minor error in the calculation formula that affected a small number of schools. Any schools that previously "Beat the Odds" but did not under the recalculated model are "held harmless" for their BTO status in that year. For more details on this correction and to see what schools were affected, click on the May 2017 BTO Calculation Correction Overview document below.

Stata "Do" files for the BTO analysis can be made available upon request.