Beating the Odds Analysis

NOTE of COVID-19 Impact:
GOSA is unable to perform the BTO analysis for 2020 due to the cancellation of 2020 Milestones testing and the lack of 2020 CCRPI data.


Beating the Odds (BTO) is a statistical analysis that compares a school’s actual performance on the College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI) with the performance of schools with similar characteristics across the state. Schools that perform higher than similar schools are considered “Beating the Odds.” It is important to note that schools that “Beat the Odds” may still have low CCRPI scores and/or gaps in performance.

2019 Beating the Odds Analysis

GOSA released the 2019 BTO analysis on December 19, 2019. The following files are available for download:

Details on the Calculation

Beginning with the release of the 2018 CCRPI, Beating the Odds is calculated using a revised formula in order to improve the model based on feedback from school systems, the Georgia Department of Education (GaDOE), Georgia’s Educator Effectiveness and Accountability Technical Advisory Committee, and an external statistical expert. The former "Did Not Beat the Odds" category was separated into two tiers in order to provide additional context: "Within Expected Range" and "Below Expected Range." For a list of detailed changes, see the  Download this pdf file. BTO Revised Model document , the Download this pdf file. BTO Statistical Model Technical Report , and the Download this pdf file. BTO technical overview . For a brief overview of the calculation, see the Download this pdf file. BTO Overview .

The following school characteristics are included in the calculation:

  • Percentage of economically disadvantaged students,
  • Percentage of English language learners,
  • Percentage of students with disabilities,
  • Percentage of students in each race/ethnicity,
  • Percentage of female students,
  • Student mobility,
  • School size,
  • Whether a school is defined as non-traditional ( Download this pdf file. according to GOSA ), and
  • School type (Elementary, Middle, High, and schools that span grade clusters).

With the 2018 revision to the Beating the Odds model, students are now counted in the demographics portion if they were enrolled as “Full-Time Equivalent (FTE)." This is different from previous iterations of the Beating the Odds model, where students were counted in the demographics portion if they were enrolled as "Full Academic Year (FAY)."

The results of Beating the Odds are used for accountability in charter school, charter system, and Strategic Waivers School System (SWSS) contracts. Visit GaDOE’s Charter School page for more information on how it is used in charter school and charter system accountability. Visit GOSA’s SWSS page for more information on how it is used in SWSS accountability.