Beating the Odds Analysis

Beating the Odds is a statistical analysis that compares a school’s actual performance on the College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI) with the performance of schools with similar characteristics across the state. Schools that perform higher than similar schools are considered “Beating the Odds.” It is important to note that schools that “Beat the Odds” may still have low CCRPI scores and/or gaps in performance. Each year, between 40-49% of schools will “Beat the Odds” regardless of statewide performance changes from the prior year because the analysis compares all schools’ performance within the same school year.

The following school characteristics are included in the calculation:

  • Percentage of economically disadvantaged students,
  • Percentage of English language learners,
  • Percentage of students with disabilities,
  • Percentage of students in each race/ethnicity,
  • School size,
  • Student mobility, and
  • School type (Elementary, Middle, High, and schools that span grade clusters).

As with the CCRPI, students are only counted in the demographics portion if they were enrolled for the “Full Academic Year (FAY),” meaning at least 65 percent of the school year or course (in the case of high school block schedules). As a result, the percentages in the statistical model are not likely to match the values published on the GaDOE FTE count website or the GOSA Report Card, which report demographics for all enrolled students.

The results of Beating the Odds are used for accountability in charter school, charter system, and strategic waiver school system (SWSS) contracts. For more information on how it is used in charter school and charter system accountability, click here. For more information on how it is used in SWSS accountability, click here.

For more detail on the calculation, click on the technical overview below.

*On May 5, 2017, GOSA released a recalculated BTO for 2012-2016 to correct a minor error in the calculation formula that affected a small number of schools. Any schools that previously "Beat the Odds" but did not under the recalculated model are "held harmless" for their BTO status in that year. For more details on this correction and to see what schools were affected, click on the May 2017 BTO Calculation Correction Overview document below.

Stata "Do" files for the BTO analysis can be made available upon request.